19th Lesson [Beginner] Out Counting and Equity Calculation

The core of out counting is “determining win probability.”

Basic Strategy

Count outs and calculate equity to determine the exact win probability.

Game situation: cash game 1/2, when holding a draw on the flop or turn

What are Outs?

• Cards that, if they appear on the turn or river, give me a high chance of winning
• Example: flush draw → 9 cards of the same suit are outs

What is Equity?

• The expected percentage of the pot your hand is entitled to (%)
• Example: 35% equity = an average value of $35 in a $100 pot

Rule of 2 and Rule of 4

How to quickly convert the number of outs into equity (%):

• Rule of 2 (Turn → River): Outs × 2 = Approximate win probability (%)
• Rule of 4 (Flop → River): Outs × 4 = Approximate win probability (%)
• Example: 9 outs × 4 = 36% (actual ≈35%)

Common Draw Outs and Equity

1. flush draw

• Outs: 9 cards (same suit)
• Equity: Flop → River approx. 35%
• Turn → River approx. 19%
• Example: Board K♠9♦4♠, Hand A♠7♠ → 9 spades are outs

2. open-ended straight draw

• Outs: 8 cards
• Equity: Flop → River approx. 31.5%
• Turn → River approx. 17%
• Example: Board 8♠7♦2♥, Hand 9♥6♥ → 8 cards (5 or T) are outs

3. flush + straight combo draw

• Outs: 15 cards (9 for flush + 8 for straight – 2 duplicates)
• Equity: Flop → River approx. 54%
• Example: Board 8♦7♦2♣, Hand 9♦6♦ → 9 diamonds + 6 cards (5/T) = 15 cards

4. gutshot straight draw

• Outs: 4 cards
• Equity: Flop → River approx. 16.5%
• Turn → River approx. 8.7%
• Example: Board 9♠6♥3♣, Hand 8♠7♦ → 4 cards (5) are outs

Out Counting Evaluation Procedure

1. Identify draw type (flush, straight, etc.)
2. Count outs (remove duplicates)
3. Apply Rule of 2 or Rule of 4
4. Compare pot odds and equity
5. Equity > Pot Odds → call; otherwise fold or raise

Example Hand Analysis

Example 1: flush draw (9 outs)

• Situation: Cash 1/2, 100 BB, BTN opens for $6, BB (Hero) calls, Flop K♠9♦4♠, Hand A♠7♠
• Pot $13, Opponent bets $10
• Outs: 9 spades
• Equity: 9 × 4 ≈ 36% (Flop → River 35%)
• Pot Odds: 10 / (13+10+10) = 30%
• Conclusion: 35% > 30% → call

Example 2: open-ended straight draw (8 outs)

• Situation: Flop 8♠7♦2♥, Hand 9♥6♥
• Pot $21, Opponent bets $15
• Outs: 8 cards (5 or T)
• Equity: 8 × 4 ≈ 32% (actual 31.5%)
• Pot Odds: 15 / (21+15+15) = 29%
• Conclusion: 32% > 29% → call

Example 3: flush + straight combo (15 outs)

• Situation: Flop 8♦7♦2♣, Hand 9♦6♦
• Pot $25, Opponent bets $18
• Outs: 9 diamonds + 6 cards (5/T) (2 duplicates removed) = 15 cards
• Equity: 15 × 4 ≈ 60% (actual 54%)
• Pot Odds: 18 / (25+18+18) = 30%
• Conclusion: 54% > 30% → raise (aggressive play)

Example 4: gutshot straight draw (4 outs)

• Situation: Flop 9♠6♥3♣, Hand 8♠7♦
• Pot $30, Opponent bets $20
• Outs: 4 cards (5)
• Equity: 4 × 4 ≈ 16% (actual 16.5%)
• Pot Odds: 20 / (30+20+20) = 28%
• Conclusion: 16% < 28% → fold (if implied odds are not sufficient)

Key Patterns Summary

1. flush draw (9 outs) → Equity approx. 35%
2. open-ended straight (8 outs) → Equity approx. 31.5%
3. gutshot (4 outs) → Equity approx. 16.5%
4. Utilize Rule of 2 & Rule of 4 → Fast equity calculation
5. Remove duplicate outs → Accurate out counting
6. Equity > Pot Odds → call or raise

Quiz

Question 1: Flop A♠K♠3♦, Hand Q♠J♠. How many outs?

• A) 8
• B) 9
• C) 12

Answer: B) 9 (flush draw – 9 spades)

Question 2: What is the equity of an open-ended straight draw?

• A) Approx. 20%
• B) Approx. 31.5%
• C) Approx. 40%

Answer: B) Approx. 31.5%

Question 3: With 9 outs on the flop, what is the equity calculated by the Rule of 4?

• A) 18%
• B) 27%
• C) 36%

Answer: C) 36% (actual 35%)

Question 4: How many outs does a gutshot straight draw have?

• A) 2
• B) 4
• C) 8

Answer: B) 4

Question 5: What is the equity of a flush + straight combo draw?

• A) Approx. 35%
• B) Approx. 45%
• C) Approx. 54%

Answer: C) Approx. 54%

Answers and Explanations

1. Question 1: B) 9 – A flush draw has 9 outs of the same suit.
2. Question 2: B) Approx. 31.5% – An open-ended straight has 8 outs, giving it approximately 31.5% equity.
3. Question 3: C) 36% – 9 outs × 4 = 36% (actual is approx. 35%).
4. Question 4: B) 4 – A gutshot completes only one rank, so it has 4 outs.
5. Question 5: C) Approx. 54% – 9 for flush + 6 for straight (duplicates removed) = 15 outs, approx. 54% equity.