Lesson 18 [Beginner] Implied Odds

Implied odds is a concept that considers not only the current pot odds, but also the additional money you can expect to win in the future if you complete your hand. It is a crucial decision-making factor when playing draws.

Basic Strategy

Implied odds are calculated by combining current pot odds + additional money you expect to win in the future.

Basic Premise: Cash game 100BB stack, average opponent

Key elements of implied odds:

• Current Pot Odds: Pot size relative to the amount to call (refer to Lesson 17)
• Future Value: The amount an opponent is expected to pay additionally when you complete your hand
• Remaining Stack: Effective stack size of opponent and yourself

Basic Calculation Method:

Required Implied Odds = (Call Amount × Required Equity) – Current Pot Size

Example: Pot $100, Bet $50, Flush Draw (approx. 20% equity)

• Pot Odds: $50 call for $150 pot = 3:1 (25% equity needed)
• My Equity: 20% (insufficient)
• Required Additional Amount: approx. $50 or more

Reasons for this:

• Draws might not be profitable to call based on current pot odds alone, but if you can get additional money after completing your hand, it's profitable in the long run
• Playing for a set with a small pair also relies on implied odds
• Considering your opponent's stack and playing style allows for more accurate decisions

Situational Adjustments

1. When the opponent is loose and calls frequently

Implied odds increase. You can play draws or small pairs more aggressively. This is because the opponent is likely to pay a large amount for a completed hand.

2. When the opponent is tight and cautious

Implied odds decrease. You should play draws conservatively. Even if you complete your hand, the opponent is unlikely to pay a large amount.

3. When stacks are deep (150BB+)

Implied odds become very high. The value of speculative hands like small pairs or suited connectors increases. If you make a big hand, you have a chance to win your opponent's entire stack.

4. When stacks are shallow (40BB or less)

Implied odds decrease. You should focus on playing made hands rather than draws. Even if you complete your hand, the additional amount you can win is limited.

Things to Consider

When you have a draw or a small pair, try to think in this order:

1. What are the current pot odds? Pot size relative to the call amount
2. What is my hand's equity? Flush draw approx. 20%, set making approx. 12%
3. What is the opponent's remaining stack? Is the effective stack sufficient?
4. How much will the opponent pay for a completed hand? Are they loose or tight?
5. Can I get the required additional amount? Are the implied odds sufficient?

Example Hand Analysis

Example 1: Flush Draw (Good Implied Odds)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: BTN
Preflop: CO raise $6, Hero call 8♠7♠
Flop: A♠ K♠ 3♣, Pot $15, Opponent bet $10
Pot: $25, Call $10

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ Opponent is likely to have an Ace or King. I have a flush draw (9 outs, approx. 18% equity)

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ Draw. Currently weak, but strong if completed

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?”
→ Pot odds: $10 call for $35 pot = 3.5:1 (approx. 22% equity needed). Current equity of 18% is insufficient
→ However, with $400 remaining stack, if the opponent is a loose player, there's a high chance to get $100+ additionally if the flush completes
→ Implied odds are sufficient

Conclusion: Call $10

Comment: If a spade comes on the turn, you can expect a big bet. If the opponent has top pair or two pair, they are likely to pay a large amount for a flush.

Example 2: Set Mining (Good Implied Odds)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: BB
Preflop: CO raise $6, BTN call, Hero 55
Pot: $19, Call $4

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ 55 is a weak hand. The probability of making a set is approx. 12% (on the flop)

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ For set mining. Very strong if a set is made on the flop

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?”
→ Pot odds: $4 call for $23 pot = 5.75:1 (approx. 15% equity needed). Set probability of 12% is slightly insufficient
→ However, both players have $400 remaining stack, and if a set is made, there's a high chance to win a large pot
→ Implied odds are sufficient (usually 15:1 or more is needed, currently approx. 20:1 possible)

Conclusion: Call $4

Comment: If a 5 doesn't come on the flop, you usually fold. If you make a set, you can get a large amount from the opponent's overpair or two pair.

Example 3: Bad Implied Odds (Fold)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 60BB
Position: CO
Preflop: UTG raise $6, Hero 44
Pot: $9, Call $6

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ UTG has a tight open range. 44 is a weak hand

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ For set mining. Set probability approx. 12%

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?”
→ Pot odds: $6 call for $15 pot = 2.5:1 (approx. 29% equity needed). Set probability of 12% is significantly insufficient
→ Only $120 remaining stack. Even if a set is made, the amount that can be won is limited (approx. 10:1)
→ Set mining usually requires 15:1 or more, so implied odds are insufficient

Conclusion: Fold

Comment: When stacks are shallow, the value of small pairs significantly decreases. Even if a set is made, there's a high chance you won't be able to win a sufficient amount.

Key Patterns Summary

Pattern 1: Implied Odds = Current Pot Odds + Additional Future Winnings

Pattern 2: Draws rely on implied odds (flush draws, straight draws)

Pattern 3: Set mining requires implied odds of 15:1 or more

Pattern 4: Opponent is loose → Implied odds are high (play draws aggressively)

Pattern 5: Opponent is tight → Implied odds are low (play draws conservatively)

Pattern 6: Stacks are deep → Implied odds are high (speculative hand value increases)

Pattern 7: Stacks are shallow → Implied odds are low (focus on made hands)

Quiz

Question 1
On the flop, you have a flush draw, pot is $100, opponent bets $50, remaining stack is $500. Pot odds are insufficient, but the opponent is loose. What is the correct action?

A) Fold (insufficient pot odds)
B) Call (considering implied odds)
C) Raise
D) All-in

Question 2
What are the generally required implied odds for set mining?

A) 5:1
B) 10:1
C) 15:1
D) 25:1

Question 3
Which of the following is NOT a factor that increases implied odds?

A) Opponent's stack is deep
B) Opponent is loose
C) My stack is shallow
D) Opponent calls frequently

Question 4
You are dealt 33 preflop. UTG raises $6, stack is 40BB. What is the correct action?

A) Call (set mining)
B) 3-bet
C) Fold (insufficient implied odds)
D) All-in

Question 5
Your opponent is very tight and cautious. How should you adjust your draw play?

A) Play draws more aggressively
B) Play draws conservatively
C) No change
D) Always raise draws

Answers and Explanations

Question 1
Answer: B) Call (considering implied odds)

Explanation: Although current pot odds are insufficient, with $500 remaining stack and a loose opponent, there's a high chance to win a large amount if the flush completes. Considering implied odds, calling is profitable.

Question 2
Answer: C) 15:1

Explanation: Since the probability of making a set on the flop is approximately 12%, implied odds of about 15:1 or more are needed for long-term profitability. The total amount you can win relative to the call amount should be 15 times or more.

Question 3
Answer: C) My stack is shallow

Explanation: If your stack is shallow, the amount you can win even if you complete your hand is limited, thus lowering implied odds. The rest are all factors that increase implied odds.

Question 4
Answer: C) Fold (insufficient implied odds)

Explanation: With only 40BB ($80) stack, even if you make a set, the amount you can win is about 13 times the call. Set mining requires 15:1 or more, so implied odds are insufficient.

Question 5
Answer: B) Play draws conservatively

Explanation: If the opponent is tight and cautious, they are unlikely to pay a large amount even if you complete your hand. Implied odds decrease, so you should play draws conservatively.