Lesson 60 [Advanced] Bubble Play

In the bubble, survival can be more valuable than accumulating chips.

Basic Strategy

The bubble is the situation in a tournament just before entering the money. For example, if 100 players participate and 15 players receive prizes, the bubble is around 16th-20th place. In this phase, you should apply ICM (Independent Chip Model) rather than standard chip EV calculations.

Basic Premises:

• Tournament MTT, just before entering the money (within 5-10 places of the bubble)
• Stack: 15-40BB (typical bubble stack size)
• Situation with ICM pressure

The basic strategy is differentiation by stack size:

Big Stack (above average, 30BB+): Play aggressively. Put pressure on middle/short stacks and maximize fold equity by leveraging ICM pressure. This is the best time to accumulate chips in the bubble.

Middle Stack (around average, 20-30BB): Play selectively. While advantageous compared to short stacks, it's best to avoid confrontations with big stacks. Play primarily with premium hands and increase fold frequency for marginal hands.

Short Stack (below average, 10-20BB): Survival is the priority. Since ICM pressure is highest, avoid all-in situations as much as possible and aim to make it into the money. Folding non-premium hands can be advantageous in the long run.

Very Short Stack (10BB or less): ICM pressure is already weakened. Instead, you should actively try to double up and switch to playing closer to chip EV.

The core principle of ICM is that chip value is non-linear. Losing 10BB is a greater loss than gaining 10BB, and in the bubble especially, the risk of elimination outweighs everything else.

Responses by Situation

1. When a Big Stack Pressures Middle/Short Stacks

Expand your raise range to 30-40% from late position. Middle/short stacks are forced to defend tightly due to ICM, so your fold equity is very high. It's especially good to maximize your aggression frequency from the BTN and SB.

2. When a Middle Stack is at the Same Table as a Big Stack

If a big stack is in late position, reduce your open raise frequency from early/middle position. Since you'll often face 3-bet pressure from the big stack and be forced to fold, play tightly, focusing on premium hands. However, you can maintain a standard range at tables or in hands where there is no big stack.

3. When Multiple Short Stacks Remain

It's advantageous to wait for other short stacks to be eliminated first. Avoid all-in confrontations, and even consider folding premium hands (QQ, AK) to a big stack's large raise. Since only one more elimination means you're in the money, the value of survival is very high.

4. Just Before the Bubble Bursts (1-2 Eliminations Away)

This is when ICM pressure is at its maximum. If you're a big stack, play as aggressively as possible; if you're a middle/short stack, play extremely tightly. Every single hand can determine your tournament life, so it's best to fold all marginal hands.

Things to Consider

In bubble situations, try to think in this order:

1. How many players are left, and how many until the money?
2. What is my stack size? (Big/Middle/Short/Very Short)
3. What is the stack distribution at the table? (Who are the big stacks? How many short stacks?)
4. If an all-in confrontation occurs in this hand, will it end my tournament life?
5. What is the likelihood of a short stack being eliminated at another table? (Is it advantageous to wait?)

Example Hand Analysis

Example 1: Big Stack Bubble Pressure

Game: MTT, Bubble (101 players remaining, 100 paid) Stack: Hero 80BB (chip leader), Average 25BB Position: BTN Table Situation: SB 15BB, BB 12BB (both short stacks) Preflop: Everyone folds, Hero receives K♠9♥ on the BTN Blinds: 500/1,000, Ante 100

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored in this spot?” → In a bubble situation, the big stack has an absolute advantage. Both blinds are under significant ICM pressure.

2. “What is my hand's role within my range?” → K9o is generally a marginal hand, but it's a playable raise from the BTN in the bubble.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?” → The SB with 15BB might fold QQ or worse due to ICM, and the BB with 12BB might also consider folding JJ or worse. Fold equity is very high.

Conclusion: Raise 2.5BB (2,500)

Result: SB folds, BB folds

Comment: In the bubble, a big stack can significantly expand their late position raise range. Hands like K9o are highly profitable due to high fold equity. This single hand brought in 2,600 chips from the blinds and ante, and repeating such plays can build a large stack during the bubble phase.

Example 2: Middle Stack ICM Fold

Game: MTT, Bubble (102 players remaining, 100 paid) Stack: Hero 22BB (middle stack), Average 25BB Position: HJ Table Situation: BTN player 120BB (chip leader) Preflop: Everyone folds, Hero receives A♠J♦ in HJ Blinds: 600/1,200, Ante 120

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored in this spot?” → Generally, AJo is a playable raise from the HJ, but there's a chip leader on the BTN.

2. “What is my hand's role within my range?” → AJo is a decent hand for a middle stack, but it's a borderline hand that would have to fold if facing a 3-bet.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?” → The chip leader on the BTN has no ICM pressure, so they are likely to have a wide 3-betting range. If I raise, there's a 30-40% chance of facing a 3-bet, which would mean investing 7-8BB and then having to fold.

Conclusion: Fold

Comment: In the bubble, you must consider ICM, not just chip EV. While an AJo HJ open would be standard in a normal situation, if there's a chip leader on the BTN and you're a middle stack, folding can be more advantageous in the long run. The risk of losing 7-8BB is critical to your tournament life. This is the essence of ICM.

Example 3: Short Stack Survival Play

Game: MTT, Bubble (103 players remaining, 100 paid) Stack: Hero 11BB (short stack) Position: BB Table Situation: There are two other short stacks (8BB, 9BB) at other tables (observed information) Preflop: Cutoff (60BB) raises 2.5BB, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero receives Q♥Q♣ in BB Blinds: 500/1,000, Ante 100

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored in this spot?” → QQ is a premium hand, and the Cutoff's raise is likely from a wide range.

2. “What is my hand's role within my range?” → QQ is a top 5% hand, typically an all-in situation.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?” → Consider ICM here: there are two other short stacks (8BB, 9BB) at other tables. Since I have 11BB, if I can survive one or two more hands, they are likely to be eliminated first. If I go all-in and lose to the Cutoff's AK or JJ+, I'm out, but if I fold and wait, my chances of making the money are high.

Conclusion: Fold

Comment: This is an extreme ICM fold. In a normal situation, you would never fold QQ, but in the bubble, if other short stacks are likely to be eliminated first, survival can be more valuable. Of course, this decision is very difficult and requires accurate knowledge of other table situations. If there were no other short stacks, you should, of course, go all-in.

Example 4: Very Short Stack Push/Fold

Game: MTT, Bubble (105 players remaining, 100 paid) Stack: Hero 7BB (very short stack) Position: Cutoff Preflop: Everyone folds, Hero receives A♦8♠ in Cutoff Blinds: 600/1,200, Ante 120

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored in this spot?” → 7BB is in the push/fold zone. There are no chips to raise and then fold.

2. “What is my hand's role within my range?” → A8o is strong enough for a 7BB push/fold range (top 20-25%).

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call frequently?” → With 7BB, ICM pressure is weakened. After paying the blinds, I'll be down to 5.5BB, so I must try to double up. If the BTN and blinds all defend tightly, there's also fold equity.

Conclusion: All-in 7BB

Result: BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds

Comment: When you're below 10BB, chip accumulation for survival takes precedence over ICM pressure. A very short stack will dwindle further just by paying blinds and antes, so you must switch to a push/fold strategy. A8o is strong enough for a Cutoff push range, has fold equity, and can expect over 40% win rate if called.

Key Patterns Summary

Pattern 1: Big Stack (30BB+) = Increased Aggression → Late position raise range 30-40%

Pattern 2: Middle Stack (20-30BB) = Selective Play → Avoid big stacks, focus on premium hands

Pattern 3: Short Stack (10-20BB) = Survival First → Avoid all-in confrontations, wait for other short stacks to be eliminated

Pattern 4: Very Short Stack (10BB or less) = Switch to Push/Fold → Weakened ICM pressure, return to chip EV

Pattern 5: Bubble Pressure = Maximize Fold Equity → Big stacks can attack even with marginal hands

Pattern 6: ICM Fold = Even AJ, QQ can be folded → Survival value outweighs chip EV

Pattern 7: Monitor Other Tables → Adjust strategy by identifying short stack positions

Pattern 8: Just Before Bubble Bursts (1-2 Eliminations) = Maximum ICM Pressure → Extremely tight or extremely aggressive play

Quiz

Question 1 In a bubble situation (102 players remaining, 100 paid), you are a 25BB middle stack. You receive K♠Q♠ in the HJ, and there is a 150BB chip leader on the BTN. What is the correct play?

A) Raise – KQs is a strong hand B) Fold – Avoid the chip leader's 3-bet pressure C) Limp – Keep the pot small D) All-in – Pressure the big stack

Question 2 In a bubble situation, you are an 80BB chip leader. You receive J♥8♥ on the BTN, and the SB has 12BB, BB has 15BB. What is the correct play?

A) Fold – J8s is a weak hand B) Limp – See a small pot C) Raise – Fold equity is high D) Check – See a free flop

Question 3 In a bubble situation (103 players remaining, 100 paid), you are an 11BB short stack. You receive Q♠Q♣ in the BB, and the Cutoff (60BB) raises 2.5BB. There are two other short stacks (8BB, 9BB) at other tables. From an ICM perspective, what is the correct decision?

A) All-in – QQ is a premium hand B) Fold – Other short stacks are likely to be eliminated first C) Call – See the flop D) Mini 3-bet – Build the pot

Question 4 In a bubble situation, you are a 7BB very short stack. You receive A♦8♠ in the Cutoff. What is the correct play?

A) Fold – Survival is the priority in the bubble B) Raise 2.5BB – Standard raise C) All-in 7BB – Push/fold strategy D) Limp – See a small pot

Question 5 Which of the following is the core principle of ICM?

A) Chip value is linear – 10 chips = 10 chips B) Chip value is non-linear – Losing 10 chips is a greater loss than gaining 10 chips C) Only chip EV needs to be considered in the bubble D) Big stacks experience the greatest ICM pressure

Answers and Explanations

Question 1 Answer: B) Fold

Explanation: Opening from the HJ as a middle stack in front of a chip leader in the bubble is risky. KQs is a strong hand, but if the chip leader has a wide 3-betting range, you'll often find yourself having to fold after investing 7-8BB. From an ICM perspective, folding can be more advantageous in the long run. C (limp) is not recommended in any situation.

Question 2 Answer: C) Raise

Explanation: In the bubble, a chip leader should maximize their aggression frequency. Both blinds are short stacks and under significant ICM pressure, so even marginal hands like J8s are highly profitable due to high fold equity. This is the essence of bubble pressure. A (fold) is an opportunity cost loss, and B (limp) is not recommended.

Question 3 Answer: B) Fold

Explanation: This is an extreme ICM fold situation. QQ is a premium hand, but if there are two smaller short stacks at other tables, you have a high chance of making the money by just surviving one or two more hands. If you go all-in and lose, you're out, but if you fold and wait, your chances of making the money are high. This is the essence of ICM. However, if there were no other short stacks, you should, of course, go all-in.

Question 4 Answer: C) All-in 7BB

Explanation: Below 10BB, you must switch to a push/fold strategy. With 7BB, you'll be down to 5.5BB after paying blinds and antes, so you must try to double up. A8o is strong enough for a Cutoff push range, has fold equity, and can expect over 40% win rate if called. A (fold) will lead to your stack continuously shrinking, making it more disadvantageous, and B (raise 2.5BB) is meaningless as you don't have chips to fold.

Question 5 Answer: B) Chip value is non-linear

Explanation: The core of ICM is that chip value is non-linear. Losing 10BB is a greater loss than gaining 10BB, and in the bubble especially, the risk of elimination outweighs everything. A is incorrect (chips are non-linear), C is incorrect (ICM consideration is essential in the bubble), and D is the opposite (big stacks have the least ICM pressure, while short stacks have the most).