Lecture 59 [Advanced] ICM Basics

ICM is a mathematical model that calculates the monetary value of chips in a tournament.

Basic Strategy

In tournaments, doubling your chips does not double your prize money, so decisions should be based on dollar EV ($EV), not chip EV.

ICM (Independent Chip Model): A model that converts each player's chip stack into prize money expectation ($) in a tournament

Chips ≠ Money: Losing chips results in a greater prize money loss than gaining chips (non-linear relationship).

ICM Pressure: The pressure felt by medium stacks near the bubble or final table.

Risk Premium: The tendency to avoid risk in tournaments because survival is crucial.

There are three reasons to use these strategies:

• Even if chip EV > 0, if $EV < 0, you should fold to preserve survival value.
• Big stacks can exploit the ICM pressure on medium stacks to attack.
• Short stacks have less ICM pressure, allowing for aggressive play.

Responses by Situation

1. Bubble Situation (Just Before In-the-Money)

In a bubble situation, medium stacks experience the greatest ICM pressure. Since reaching in-the-money guarantees a minimum prize, medium stacks avoid risk and wait for short stacks to be eliminated first. Big stacks exploit this by bluffing aggressively, while short stacks should only go all-in with premium hands.

2. Final Table (Situations with Large Prize Jumps)

At the final table, the prize difference for each rank jump is significant, so medium stacks play even more conservatively. Big stacks increase their bluffs, targeting medium stacks, and medium stacks avoid clashes with each other. Short stacks should aim for a quick double-up.

3. Big Stack vs. Big Stack (Near the Bubble)

Near the bubble, big stack vs. big stack confrontations have less ICM pressure. Since both are already guaranteed to be in-the-money, they can play based on chip EV. It might even be more profitable to pressure medium stacks.

4. Short Stack (10BB or Less, Near the Bubble)

Short stacks have less ICM pressure. Since their prize expectation is already low, they should aim for a double-up and need to go all-in with premium hands or strong aces (AQ+, 88+). Folding to survive the bubble offers little value, so it's better to play aggressively.

Things to Consider

When considering ICM, try to think in this order:

1. Is it near the bubble or final table? Check if it's a high ICM pressure situation.
2. What is my stack size? Big stack = aggressive, medium stack = conservative, short stack = aggressive.
3. What are my opponents' stack sizes? Medium stacks are good bluff targets, be careful with big stacks.
4. What is the difference between this hand's chip EV and $EV? Even if chip EV > 0, if $EV < 0, fold.
5. What is the action choice? Adjust your range based on ICM for push, fold, or raise.

Example Hand Analysis

Example 1: Bubble Situation, Medium Stack's Conservative Play

Game: Tournament, just before the bubble (45 players remaining, 40 in-the-money)
Stacks: Hero 30BB (medium stack), Big Blind 10BB (short stack), BTN 60BB (big stack)
Position: CO
Hero Hand: A♠J♠

Thought Process:

1. “Who has a structural advantage on this board?”
   → Bubble situation, medium stack has high ICM pressure.
2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
   → A♠J♠ is an open raise hand in cash games but risky in a bubble situation.
3. “Does my opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call a lot?”
   → If BTN (big stack) 3-bets or Big Blind (short stack) goes all-in, it's awkward. Survival value is high.

Conclusion: Fold (chip EV might be +, but $EV is likely –)

Comment: In a bubble situation, medium stacks should avoid risk. A♠J♠ is a good hand, but waiting for a short stack to be eliminated might yield a higher $EV.

Example 2: Bubble Situation, Big Stack's Aggressive Play

Game: Tournament, just before the bubble (45 players remaining, 40 in-the-money)
Stacks: Hero 80BB (big stack), Big Blind 25BB (medium stack)
Position: BTN
Hero Hand: K♣9♠

Thought Process:

1. “Who has a structural advantage on this board?”
   → Bubble situation, big stack can pressure medium stacks.
2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
   → K♣9♠ is a weak hand, but medium stacks are likely to fold due to ICM pressure.
3. “Does my opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call a lot?”
   → Medium stacks play tight to survive the bubble. Bluff success rate is high.

Conclusion: Raise 3BB (attempt to steal)

Comment: In a bubble situation, big stacks can aggressively pressure medium stacks. Medium stacks only defend with premium hands due to ICM, increasing bluff success rates.

Example 3: Final Table, Medium Stacks Avoiding Clashes

Game: Tournament, Final Table (8 players remaining)
Stacks: Hero 40BB (3rd), CO 35BB (4th), BTN 15BB (7th)
Position: BB
Preflop: CO raises 3BB
Hero Hand: T♠T♣

Thought Process:

1. “Who has a structural advantage on this board?”
   → Final table, clashes between medium stacks are detrimental to both.
2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
   → T♠T♣ is a strong hand, but creating a big pot with a medium stack is risky.
3. “Does my opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call a lot?”
   → CO is also a medium stack, so they'll continue only with premiums. 3-betting creates risk for both.

Conclusion: Call (3-bet is high risk)

Comment: At the final table, medium stacks should avoid clashes. Creating a big pot can decrease both players' prize expectations. Play cautiously after the flop.

Example 4: Short Stack All-in Push (10BB)

Game: Tournament, just before the bubble (45 players remaining, 40 in-the-money)
Stacks: Hero 10BB (short stack)
Position: CO
Hero Hand: A♣Q♦

Thought Process:

1. “Who has a structural advantage on this board?”
   → Short stacks have less ICM pressure, need to double up.
2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
   → A♣Q♦ is a near-premium hand, sufficient for an all-in push.
3. “Does my opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call a lot?”
   → In a bubble situation, medium stacks fold tightly. High fold equity.

Conclusion: All-in push 10BB

Comment: Short stacks should aim for a double-up. Since there's little value in just surviving the bubble, it's better to go all-in aggressively with premium hands or strong aces.

Key Patterns Summary

Pattern 1: ICM = A model that converts chip stacks into prize money expectation ($)

Pattern 2: Chips ≠ Money; losing chips results in a greater loss than gaining chips (non-linear)

Pattern 3: Near the bubble/final table = High ICM pressure

Pattern 4: Big stacks = Aggressive (pressuring medium stacks)

Pattern 5: Medium stacks = Conservative (survival first, risk avoidance)

Pattern 6: Short stacks = Aggressive (double-up first, less ICM pressure)

Pattern 7: Medium stacks avoid clashes (detrimental to both)

Pattern 8: Even if chip EV > 0, if $EV < 0, fold

Quiz

Question 1

What is the core concept of ICM?

A) A strategy to accumulate as many chips as possible in a tournament
B) A model that converts chip stacks into prize money expectation ($) in a tournament
C) The concept that cash games and tournaments are the same
D) A strategy to always play aggressively

Question 2

What strategy should a medium stack (30BB) adopt in a bubble situation?

A) Play every hand aggressively
B) Play conservatively, avoid risk, focus on premium hands
C) All-in push
D) No change in strategy

Question 3

What strategy should a big stack (80BB) adopt in a bubble situation?

A) Play conservatively
B) Aggressively pressure medium stacks, increase bluffs
C) Only attack short stacks
D) No change in strategy

Question 4

What happens when medium stacks clash at the final table?

A) Both players' prize expectations increase
B) Both players' prize expectations can decrease (ICM loss)
C) Only the winner benefits
D) No effect

Question 5

What is the correct strategy for a short stack (10BB, near the bubble)?

A) Fold to survive the bubble
B) Aggressively all-in push with premium hands or strong aces
C) Wait until the blinds increase
D) Attack medium stacks

Answers and Explanations

Question 1

Answer: B) A model that converts chip stacks into prize money expectation ($) in a tournament

Explanation: ICM is a mathematical model that converts each player's chip stack into prize money expectation in a tournament. Since doubling your chips does not double your prize money, decisions in tournaments should be based on dollar EV, not chip EV.

Question 2

Answer: B) Play conservatively, avoid risk, focus on premium hands

Explanation: In a bubble situation, medium stacks experience the greatest ICM pressure. Since reaching in-the-money guarantees a minimum prize, it's best to avoid risk and wait for short stacks to be eliminated first.

Question 3

Answer: B) Aggressively pressure medium stacks, increase bluffs

Explanation: In a bubble situation, big stacks can exploit the ICM pressure on medium stacks to bluff aggressively. Medium stacks prioritize survival, leading to a higher fold frequency and increased bluff success rates.

Question 4

Answer: B) Both players' prize expectations can decrease (ICM loss)

Explanation: At the final table, if medium stacks create a big pot, one player will become a big stack and the other a short stack. However, the sum of both players' prize expectations can be lower than before the clash. This is called ICM loss.

Question 5

Answer: B) Aggressively all-in push with premium hands or strong aces

Explanation: Short stacks have less ICM pressure. Since their prize expectation is already low, they should aim for a double-up. As there's little value in just surviving the bubble, it's better to go all-in aggressively with premium hands or strong aces.