Lesson 41 [Intermediate] Turn and River Probe Bet

A probe bet is a play where an out-of-position player bets first on the turn or river after their opponent checks back the flop.

Basic Strategy

(Basic Premise)

– Cash game standard, 100BB stack
– In-position player checks back on the flop
– Out-of-position player acts first on the turn or river

(Basic Line)

When an opponent checks back the flop, it implies two things:

1. Their range is likely weakened (strong hands usually bet on the flop)
2. They likely have a medium-strength hand wanting pot control

A probe bet is a play to regain the initiative by exploiting this gap. Start with a 1/3 pot to 1/2 pot size.

(Rationale)

1. When an opponent checks back the flop, their range is capped (limited).
2. Although out of position, you can gain an information advantage by betting.
3. You can fold weak hands or extract value from medium hands.

Situational Responses

1. When the turn card is an undercard (low card)

Increase probe bet frequency (60-70%). If the board becomes drier after the opponent checks back the flop, they are more likely to fold.

2. When the turn card is an overcard (high card) or completes a draw

Use probe bets cautiously (30-40%). Since the turn card can strengthen the opponent's range, bet primarily with value hands and reduce bluffs.

3. When a draw misses on the river

You can use a river probe bet as a bluff. If the opponent had a draw, they are likely to fold, and if they had a medium hand, it might be difficult for them to call. A 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot size is recommended.

4. When the opponent checks back the flop too often

Significantly increase probe bet frequency (70-80%). If the opponent tends to over-control the pot, you can exploit them with probe bets.

Thought Framework

When considering a probe bet, analyze in this order:

1. Why did the opponent check back the flop? Weak hand, or pot control?
2. Who does the turn/river card favor?
3. Is my hand for value or a bluff?
4. What hands can I fold or extract value from with a probe bet?
5. How will I respond if the opponent raises?

Example Hand Analysis

Example 1: Turn Probe Bet (Value)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: Big Blind (Out of Position)
Preflop: BTN raises $6, BB calls
Flop: K♠ 7♥ 3♦ (Pot $13), both check
Turn: 9♣ (Pot $13), Hero holds K♦ 9♦

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ BTN checked back the flop, so their range is capped. Strong hands (KK, 77, 33) would usually have bet on the flop.

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ K9 is two pair, a value hand. It's in the top of my range on the turn.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call often?”
→ The opponent is likely to have one pair like KQ, KJ, AK, or pocket pairs. I can extract value with a probe bet.

Conclusion: Probe bet $6 (1/2 pot)

Comment: After the flop check-back, I made two pair on the turn, so I extract value with a probe bet. If the opponent raises, I can consider calling or 3-betting.

Example 2: Turn Probe Bet (Bluff)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: Small Blind (Out of Position)
Preflop: CO raises $6, SB calls
Flop: A♥ Q♣ 5♠ (Pot $13), both check
Turn: 2♦ (Pot $13), Hero holds 8♦ 7♦

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ CO checked back the flop, so they are unlikely to have strong one-pair hands like Ax, Qx.

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ 87 is complete air (nothing). It has no showdown value, so it's a bluff candidate.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call often?”
→ The turn 2 is a brick (doesn't help anyone). If the opponent had pocket pairs or weak draws, they might fold.

Conclusion: Probe bet $5 (1/3 pot)

Comment: Attempt a bluff with a small size. Be prepared to fold if the opponent raises or calls. Check/fold on the river is the default plan.

Example 3: River Probe Bet (Bluff)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: Big Blind (Out of Position)
Preflop: BTN raises $6, BB calls
Flop: J♠ 9♥ 6♦ (Pot $13), both check
Turn: 4♣ (Pot $13), both check
River: K♠ (Pot $13), Hero holds 7♠ 5♠

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ BTN checked back the flop and turn, so their range is very weak. They are unlikely to have strong hands.

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ 75 is complete air. It has almost no chance of winning at showdown.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call often?”
→ The river K is a high card, which might make the opponent uncomfortable if they have pocket pairs (77-TT). Bluff opportunity.

Conclusion: River probe bet $9 (2/3 pot)

Comment: Bluff with a large size on the river. This is an attempt to represent a K and fold the opponent's medium hands. If the opponent calls or raises, you are likely to lose at showdown.

Example 4: River Probe Bet (Value)

Game: Cash game 1/2, Stack 200BB
Position: Small Blind (Out of Position)
Preflop: BTN raises $6, SB calls
Flop: T♥ 8♠ 3♣ (Pot $13), both check
Turn: Q♦ (Pot $13), both check
River: T♠ (Pot $13), Hero holds T♣ 9♣

Thought Process:

1. “Who is structurally favored on this board?”
→ BTN checked back the flop and turn, so they are unlikely to have strong hands.

2. “What role does my hand play within my range?”
→ T9 is trips on the river. It's a value hand and belongs in the top of my range.

3. “Does the opponent have enough hands to fold / do they call often?”
→ If the opponent has Qx, 88, or pocket pairs, they might call a river probe bet.

Conclusion: River probe bet $8 (2/3 pot)

Comment: I made trips on the river, so I extract value. I should be cautious if the opponent raises (possible TT, QT), but in most cases, I can expect a call.

Key Pattern Summary

Pattern 1: Opponent checks back flop → Range is capped → Probe bet opportunity

Pattern 2: Turn undercard → Increase probe bet frequency (60-70%)

Pattern 3: Turn overcard/draw completes → Use probe bets cautiously (30-40%)

Pattern 4: River draw misses → Bluff probe bet (1/2 pot to 2/3 pot)

Pattern 5: Opponent checks back excessively → Significantly increase probe bet frequency (70-80%)

Pattern 6: Probe bet size → 1/3 pot to 2/3 pot range for both value/bluff

Pattern 7: If raised after a probe bet → Decide to fold/call/3-bet based on hand strength

Quiz

Question 1

After an in-position player checks back the flop, what is it called when an out-of-position player bets first on the turn?

A) Delayed continuation bet
B) Probe bet
C) Donk bet
D) Float bet

Question 2

When the turn card is a low undercard, how should the probe bet frequency be adjusted?

A) Rarely probe bet (10-20%)
B) Reduce probe bets slightly (30-40%)
C) Maintain probe bets (50%)
D) Increase probe bets (60-70%)

Question 3

What does it mean when an opponent checks back the flop?

A) Opponent's range is very strong
B) Opponent's range is capped (limited)
C) Opponent is setting a trap
D) Opponent is always bluffing

Question 4

When making a probe bet on the river on a missed draw board, what is an appropriate size?

A) 1/4 pot or less
B) 1/3 pot
C) 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot
D) Full pot or more

Question 5

After making a probe bet, the opponent raised. How should you respond?

A) Always fold
B) Always call
C) Always 3-bet
D) Decide to fold/call/3-bet based on hand strength

Answers and Explanations

Question 1

Answer: B) Probe bet

Explanation: A probe bet is a play where an out-of-position player bets first on the turn or river after an in-position player checks back the flop. It is a strategy to regain the initiative and gather information.

Question 2

Answer: D) Increase probe bets (60-70%)

Explanation: When the turn card is a low undercard, the board becomes drier, and the opponent's range is less likely to improve. In this case, increasing probe bet frequency can fold the opponent's weak hands.

Question 3

Answer: B) Opponent's range is capped (limited)

Explanation: When an opponent checks back the flop, it means they are unlikely to have very strong hands (nuts, strong two pair, etc.). Strong hands usually bet on the flop, so a check-back indicates a capped range.

Question 4

Answer: C) 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot

Explanation: When making a bluff probe bet on the river on a missed draw board, using a medium to large size (1/2 pot to 2/3 pot) is effective. If it's too small, the opponent will call easily, and if it's too large, the risk increases.

Question 5

Answer: D) Decide to fold/call/3-bet based on hand strength

Explanation: An opponent's raise after a probe bet can indicate a strong hand. If your hand was a bluff, you should fold; if it was a value hand, you should consider calling or 3-betting. It's important to respond flexibly according to the situation.